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笑看风云之黄金2000英镑/盎司畅想曲

笑看风云之黄金2000英镑/盎司畅想曲(附相关图表) 投资要点: ---长期看高2000英镑/盎司; ---中期目标1200美元/盎司,目前构筑头肩底之右肩部分; ---目前黄金上涨价量配合不及,已显强弩之末之意; ---黄金6月-8月步入调整市; ---投资黄金股票而不是黄金
2009-06-11 23:49  作者:admin 来源:互联网

笑看风云之黄金2000英镑/盎司畅想曲(附相关图表)投资要点:---长期看高2000英镑/盎司;---中期目标1200美元/盎司,目前构筑头肩底之右肩部分;---目前黄金上涨价量配合不及,已显强弩之末之意;---黄金6月-8月步入调整市;---投资黄金股票而不是黄金产品(金条等)(黄金股票跑赢黄金产品)。---股市跌,美元涨,金价跌;反之亦然。---根据艾略特波浪理论,美元5月完成C浪下跌,6月恢复升势,故黄金短期将步入跌势!---美元涨,加元、澳元、墨比索、南非Rand跌,金矿企业成本降低,利润提高。故黄金股短线调整无碍中线向好!---近期黄金上涨源于美元走弱,英镑、欧元走强,非新多入场,故不宜追涨!Gold should reach £2,000 anounce - but not just yet

We will not reach $5,000 an ounce without some sort ofmania. But in the last decade both dotcom and housing, and, to alesser extent, base metals, uranium and oil, have all shown howeasily manias can happen. Manias need a convincing underlyingargument - ‘internet is a new era’, ‘there’s a shortage ofhousing’, ‘the growth of China’s middle-class’. And gold's statusas a store of value, whether we see inflation or continueddeflation, make it an extremely likely candidate in thispost-credit-bubble environment. What’s more, a great deal of mythand legend follows gold which can only add fuel to the eventualfire.

But, whether we get the mania or not, such are the flaws of UK plcand its monetary representative, the pound, I do see £2,000 anounce as not just a distinct possibility, but a likelihood.

However, in a mania the world and his wife are buying. At themoment they are not.

The chart below shows the price in dollars of the SPDR Gold TrustETF (NYSE: GLD). Ignore the head and shoulder reference for now, Iwill come to it later, and look at the volume beneath. As you cansee, it is not high. In other words this recent move has come onmoderate volume. That makes me nervous. If this move had legs, Iwould like to see higher volume than that.



This rally in gold since mid-April has largely been a result ofdollar weakness, not increased buying. If you look at the price ofgold measured in other currencies - picking the pound and the euroat random, as shown below - you can see it has barely ralliedagainst them at all. If this move were anything more thanfluctuating currencies, you would see gold rising against allcurrencies on higher volume. So don’t get too excited justyet.





The dollar meanwhile is at an inflection point, as are stockmarkets. It’s as though they can’t decide which way to turn. Ifstock markets turn down, money will move out of equities, back tocash and the dollar could rally. If they turn up, the dollar couldplummet. Anyone interested in technical analysis, and in particularElliot Waves, will note that the dollar has traced a 5-wave up and3-wave down pattern. We are at an obvious point for it to turn up.If it does, gold will most likely pull back.
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